Archives of Current Research International

Colorectal cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer-related morbidity and mortality worldwide, with increasing incidence rates reported in Iraq and neighboring regions. Understanding local epidemiological patterns and associated risk factors is essential for improving early detection and prevention strategies. This study summarizes the epidemiology and statistics of colorectal cancer in Najaf and the neighboring areas from 2016 to 2024 using data collected from the Middle Euphrates Cancer Center.  With the addition of 87 new cases in 2024, the total number of cases reviewed was 194.  The majority of patients were between the ages of 40 and 79, and the majority of reported cases were male (61%). This further supports the idea that age is a strong risk factor for colorectal cancer.

The primary variables that were shown to be predictive of disease occurrence in the regression model were age, male sex, and residence in Najaf. Importantly, compared to patients from neighboring regions, those residing in Najaf had approximately 2.4 times higher chances of developing colorectal cancer. The correlations between hypertension and diabetes, which appeared to raise the risk of the disease, were not statistically significant. Despite the limitations of the sample size, smoking was found to be a significant modifiable risk factor that is clearly associated with cancer incidence.

In 2024, the estimated incidence rate reached approximately 0.189 (18.9%), representing about a 4% rise relative to 2023. This suggests a continuing upward trend in the local disease burden. The model exhibited a good fit (Nagelkerke R² = 0.42) and an overall predictive accuracy of 76%, supporting its usefulness for assessing individual risk.

Taken together, these findings point to the need for targeted public health measures—especially screening programs for higher-risk groups (older adults, men, and residents of Najaf)—paired with education that supports smoking cessation. We also recommend broader, multi-center studies that integrate genetic, environmental, and behavioral factors to sharpen risk prediction and inform evidence-based prevention.

This study is of significant importance to the scientific community because it provides up-to-date epidemiological data on colorectal cancer in Najaf Governorate and surrounding areas over a relatively long period. It also contributes to identifying key risk factors associated with the disease, such as age, sex, smoking, and place of residence, thus assisting researchers and health policymakers in developing more effective prevention programs. Furthermore, the study's significance lies in its provision of a statistical model that can be used to predict the risk of developing the disease and support early detection strategies. In addition, its findings pave the way for broader future studies that will include genetic, environmental, and behavioral factors to improve understanding of the disease and reduce its prevalence.