Archives of Current Research International

Climate variability and extreme weather events have become major environmental challenges affecting ecosystems, biodiversity, and human livelihoods worldwide. Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and irregular rainfall patterns reduce the availability of water and forage resources, increasing interactions and conflicts between humans and wildlife in many vulnerable ecosystems. This study assessed how climate extremes influence the incidence of human–wildlife conflicts in and around Nairobi National Park. It specifically examined how rainfall variability and temperature extremes have shaped conflict occurrences over time, using a longitudinal research design that integrated household surveys, key informant interviews, and secondary climate and wildlife records. The findings showed a clear pattern of increasing climate stress, with rainfall declining from 820 mm to 640 mm while temperature rose from 22.1°C to 25.1°C over the study period. Regression analysis confirmed a strong model fit (R2=0.92R^2 = 0.92R2=0.92, p<0.05p < 0.05p<0.05), indicating that climate variability significantly explained changes in conflict trends. Pearson correlation results further revealed a strong negative relationship between rainfall and conflict (r=−0.89r = -0.89r=−0.89) and a strong positive relationship between temperature and conflict (r=0.91r = 0.91r=0.91), both statistically significant at p<0.01p < 0.01p<0.01. In addition, ANOVA results showed significant differences in conflict levels across climate periods (F=32.45F = 32.45F=32.45, p<0.001p < 0.001p<0.001), with drought periods recording the highest incidence of human–wildlife conflict.

The study concludes that climate extremes are major drivers of human–wildlife conflict escalation in the Nairobi National Park ecosystem. Increasing drought frequency and rising temperatures reduce water and forage availability within wildlife habitats, forcing animals to move into surrounding human settlements in search of resources, thereby increasing cases of crop destruction, livestock predation, and human safety threats. The findings further confirm that climate variability plays a more significant role than normal seasonal fluctuations in explaining long-term conflict patterns. Based on these findings, the study recommends integrating climate variability data into human–wildlife conflict management strategies through strengthened drought early warning systems, improved water provision within protected areas, and restoration of ecological corridors to facilitate safe wildlife movement. The study also recommends strengthening community-based conservation initiatives as well as establishing fair and effective community-based compensation schemes to reduce negative perceptions toward wildlife, enhance local participation in conservation, and promote sustainable human–wildlife coexistence.